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Thursday, November 13, 2008
Done? Er, ‘medium’ chance for new cyclone
We’re two days from the midpoint of November, and still seeing orange blobs on the hurricane map (above).
That means a “medium” (20 percent to 50 percent) chance for forming a tropical cylone 300 miles northeast of Puerto Rico. Forecasters don’t see any serious threat to Florida at this point, but it is a testament to the staying power of this hurricane season that there’s even a colored blob to talk about. The beleaguered Caribbean is still cleaning up from Paloma, the second-latest Category 4 storm ever to form in November.
From the National Hurricane Center 1 p.m. advisory: “A SMALL SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE…SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.”
7 p.m. update: The center of the system is now 211 miles from San Juan and the forecast risk remains unchanged.
